Heat On The Hot Seat
Tuesday, February 15, 2011
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History has been the provider and victim of some of the world's most common misconceptions. For example, the idea of Christopher Columbus being a well-intentioned man with great exploring abilities is nothing but a fairy tale about a vehemently ruthless, corrupt man who got lost. Or perhaps the idea that Napolean Bonaparte invaded and conquered countries because of a vast amount of insecurity he had regarding his stature; the man was actually not that small - he was about 5'6", which was slightly above the average height for a French man at the time of his life. Because these tales and assumptions have engraved themselves into society's perceptions for hundreds of years, they may never be anything but what they are now - misconceptions. However, a new misconception, that has plagued society for only a few months now, may be recognized and, with some luck, rightfully seen as the ridiculously false idea it is, for it is truly astonishing and down right disgraceful that our society may be manipulated into thinking that the Miami Heat are legitimate contenders to win an NBA championship this year.
The Miami Heat have lost 20 games so far this season - 19 of those losses have been against teams that would make the playoffs if the season ended today, and 13 of those 19 losses have been against Eastern Conference opponents. Plus, two of their most recent losses included one in which the Orlando Magic came back from 24 down to win 99-96, and one at the hands of the San Antonio Spurs, who won by a mere 30 points. This tells me two things: 1) the Heat can beat bad teams and 2) they have a really hard time beating good teams. We're over 60 games into the season which means playoffs are coming up, and there are two questions on my mind: Can the Heat win? and Will the Heat win? They're two very different questions with, in my opinion, two very different answers. The Heat have been a favorite to win this year's championship all season, but when you look at the strength of the NBA - the East in particular - along with the Heat's weaknesses and their record against the league's top teams, it becomes evident that they should be known as anything but a favorite to win a championship this year.
The top half of the Eastern Conference is riddled with parity at the moment. Since the trade deadline, a few good teams became pretty big threats, and although the East may not be as good as the West from top to bottom, they're certainly stacked - and a bit top heavy. The deadline brought Carmelo Anthony and Deron Williams east, and these moves, combined with the strength the conference had prior the deadline, will make for some serious parity this year as well as for years to come. With this in mind, it's hard for me to believe that the Heat would be favorites to even get out of the East, let alone win a championship. As I mentioned before, the Heat are having serious troubles with beating quality teams, so their troubles are only magnified by the fact that the East has six teams besides the Heat that are maybe not all contenders but certainly threats capable of beating any team on any given night. Miami's competition isn't their only problem heading into the playoffs this year. The "team," itself (if that's what you want to call it) is simply not good enough to win in the playoffs. Everyone knows the danger of their top weapons, but beyond that they have very, very little. Wade and James are obviously the keys to this team, averaging over 50 points a game combined. Bosh also chips in nearly 20 a game, so it's no question that they have a lot of firepower up front. However, beyond those three, the Heat don't have anyone averaging double digit points this year. They have, and will continue, to get away with this during the regular season, but when playoffs come around it's simply not going to work. If you shut one of the three down you essentially limit and/or eliminate a third of their offense. In their most recent loss against the Magic, which I mentioned earlier, James and Wade had a combined 2 points in the 4th quarter. 
They've been shut down before and playoff series' are all about neutralizing star power. Teams will know how to cover at least one of the three and the Heat won't be able to respond because they're simply not deep enough.
They've been shut down before and playoff series' are all about neutralizing star power. Teams will know how to cover at least one of the three and the Heat won't be able to respond because they're simply not deep enough. The depth of the Heat - or lack there of - has been ruthlessly exposed against good teams this year. They've lost to Boston and Chicago three times each, Orlando twice, Dallas twice, and New York twice. It's evident that against the league's weaker teams the Heat can do whatever they want, however good teams are able to shut them down. It's no coincidence that nearly 90% of their losses this year are against the league's top teams. This takes us back to the painfully obvious fact that the Heat will have to play and beat only good teams if they want to advance in the playoffs. When things go their way they're very, very good. However, in the playoffs tendencies and strengths are attacked, making it very hard to do things the way you did them during the regular season. The teams that win are the teams that are able to adjust and adapt when their style of play is hindered. The problem the Heat have is that they don't have anything to adjust to. They're a fairly one-dimensional team that is nothing without all three of its star players.
I don't think superstars make a team a legitimate contender to win a championship, however I do think you need at least one superstar to win. The Heat obviously have superstars but I don't think they can win it this year, and they're not the only team that falls under this category. The East has at least three teams that have big-market players but probably can't win a championship this year. Stars can win in the regular season but depth is what wins when it matters.
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boston,
chris bosh,
dwayne wade,
lebron james,
miami heat,
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nba playoffs,
orlando magic,
san antonio spurs
