The Show.

Did someone tell the Padres that they were going to make the playoffs? Because it looks like a Macbeth sequel could be brewing in San Diego. The team that rose from the ashes and played steady baseball on their way to what looked like a guaranteed playoff spot is now in a position in which they could experience a tragic collapse; a 162 game schedule can certainly be a curse. They've lead the NL West for nearly the entire season, but as the home stretch is upon them they're realizing that September losses can ruin a very good season. The Padres had a 10 game losing streak that leaked its way into September, and since that losing streak began on August 26th the team has gone just 4-14, and they now hold the division lead by a mere half game, down from 6 1/2 games. So if I'm a Padre's fan and my team misses the playoffs, am I disappointed because of how close they came? Or happy about a great season, particularly after such a bad season last year? A collapse now would be a bittersweet tragedy for fans who might find it hard to complain after last season's heartache but also hard not to complain about how the team should have sealed up it's playoff ticket after leading their division all summer. But regardless of whether San Diego makes the playoffs or not, it's evident that they've turned a complete 180 since last season, and it's important to realize why this turn-around has happened, and why it could serve them well if they do make the post-season.

The turn-around the Padres have had after last season has been nothing short of miraculous. Last year they finished 20 games out of the division lead and 12 games under .500. Their run differential was a -131 by seasons end and their pitching staff's ERA was at 4.37. This year, however, the Padres have managed to take hold of a decent division. A lot of people are wondering how they did this, and I'll admit that it is hard to see. They only have two players batting over .300 and only one player with over 20 home runs. They're not winning with flash or because they have a number of all-stars on the team. They're experiencing success because they've played consistent baseball, and because they have great defense. The pitching staff's pre All-Star game ERA was 3.25 and their post All-Star ERA is 3.42. Their collective 3.31 ERA happens to be the best in baseball. They have 4 pitchers with over 10 wins and they have a closer who has 41 saves in 44 attempts. When you combine this with an offense that averages 4.2 runs a game, you're going to win a good amount of ball games. This is what has made the Padres during the year, but it could also be what breaks them down the stretch. This team has not been streaky at all this year - they'd win three, lose two, win four, lose one, win two, lose two. Its been that way all season for the team until now. This is when it's easy to realize why a 162 game season is a curse. You can be comfortable for 130 games, but if you slip up and lose 20 of your last 30 you could be in serious trouble. The ability to win at the end of a baseball season can be, and many times is, a team's golden ticket to October. However, a teams inability to do so could send them on an early vacation. It's one thing to be good all summer but its another to be good enough to close out the season come fall. Not all teams can do that, and that's what separates good teams from playoff teams.

So with less than 20 games left on their schedule the Padres are going to have to prove that they're a playoff team, which I happen to think they are. They have pitching, and pitching is everything in playoff baseball. But if they miss the postseason, is it a successful year? If I'm a Padres fan and the team misses the post-season I'd be sorely disappointed, not only because they sat atop the division for nearly the entire season, but because it's a team that is well suited for a playoff run. Their offense is mediocre, but their pitching is good enough to carry them somewhat deep into the playoffs. They're a team with dependable pitching, and although their offense is rather average, being able to keep teams off the scoreboard, like they've done effectively all year, will win them playoffs games.